Publications
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Data Brief
Quarterly Housing Update 2011: 3rd Quarter
In an analysis of third quarter housing indicators, The Furman Center finds that home sales volume remained low in the third quarter of 2011, with the number of properties sold citywide four percent lower than the number sold in the third quarter of 2010. Property values are also lagging in most of the city. Manhattan is the only borough where properties have appreciated in price over the last year. The Quarterly Housing Update is unique among New York City housing reports because it incorporates sales data, residential development indicators, and foreclosures. It also presents a repeat sales index for each borough to capture price appreciation while controlling for housing quality.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. November 2011.
affordable housing, housing prices, mortgage foreclosures, neighborhoods
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Working Paper
American Murder Mystery Revisited: Do Housing Voucher Households Cause Crime?
In recent years, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has shifted resources from public housing to the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV or “voucher”) program. There were 2.2 million vouchers nationwide in 2008, compared to 1.2 million public housing units. Although the academic and policy communities have welcomed this shift, community opposition to vouchers can be fierce, due to perceptions that voucher-holders will both reduce property values and heighten crime. Despite the public concerns, however, there is virtually no research that systematically examines the link between the presence of voucher holders in a neighborhood and crime. Our paper uses longitudinal, neighborhood-level crime and voucher utilization data in 10 large U.S. cities over 12 years, and finds voucher-holders moving to a neighborhood does not, in fact, increase crime. We do see, on the other hand, that households with vouchers tend to move to communities when crime rates are rising.
Ingrid Gould Ellen, Michael C. Lens, Katherine O’Regan. November 2011.
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Working Paper
Performance of HAMP Versus Non-HAMP Loan Modifications – Evidence from New York City
We use a unique dataset that combines data on loan, borrower, property, and neighborhood characteristics of modified mortgages on properties in New York City to examine the determinates of successful modifications. From November 2007 through March 2011, over 2.1 million mortgages were modified in the United States, and policymakers have heralded such modifications as a key to addressing the ongoing foreclosure crisis. This dataset includes both HAMP modifications and proprietary modifications. The analysis builds upon a prior paper in which the determinants of loan modifications were examined.
Ioan Voicu, Vicki Been, Mary Weselcouch, Andrew Tschirart . October 2011.
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White Papers
A Canary in the Mortgage Market? Why the Recent FHA and GSE Loan Limit Reductions Deserve Attention
Explores the potential implications of recent reductions in the maximum loan size that can be guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Government-Sponsored Enterprises or GSEs), or insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) in many parts of the country. The changes, which went into effect on Oct. 1, 2011, represent the first step in a long-term policy goal to reduce the federal government’s current role in the mortgage system. They will also be a significant test of the private mortgage finance system.
Josiah Madar and Mark Willis. October 2011.
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Working Paper
Determinants of the Incidence of Loan Modifications
Loan modifications ensure that borrowers avoid foreclosure and save their credit record. These modifications are also beneficial to the neighborhoods in which these borrowers reside, preventing vacancies and high rates of turnover. This analysis looks at loan delinquency and repayment plan data from New York City borrowers to provide the strongest predictors of modifications or liquidation of property. In this paper, we answer key questions about loan modifications, including how the identity, property or neighborhood of the borrower affects the likelihood of receiving a modification. We also look at the role of residential segregation, as well as the identity of the loan’s servicer as an influence on variations in borrower access to loan modifications.
Vicki Been, Mary Weselcouch, Ioan Voicu, Scott Murff. September 2011.
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White Papers
State of New York City’s Subsidized Housing: 2011
To reduce the financial burden that low- and moderate-income families in New York City face, city, state and federal agencies have employed numerous subsidy programs to encourage private developers to own and manage affordable housing developments. With the cooperation of government housing agencies, the Furman Center created the Subsidized Housing Information Project (SHIP)—an online searchable database containing information on the nearly 235,000 units of privately-owned, subsidized affordable rental housing in New York City developed with major subsidy programs. This report is the first comprehensive analysis of properties in our SHIP database, and identifies opportunities to preserve affordable housing in the coming years.
Jaclene Begley, Caitlyn Brazill, Vincent Reina, Max Weselcouch. September 2011.
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White Papers
Navigating Uncertain Waters: Mortgage Lending in the Wake of the Great Recession
This report summarizes our February 4, 2011 Roundtable of the same name, and provides an in-depth exploration of credit availability and lending patterns during the recession.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. August 2011.
homeownership, housing finance, housing prices, mortgage foreclosures, mortgages
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Data Brief
New York City Quarterly Housing Update 2011: 2nd Quarter
In an analysis of second quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume declined 20 percent from the first to the second quarter of 2011, although home prices citywide held steady. The report also finds that new construction is slowly starting to return with 1,556 units authorized by new residential building permits between January and June 2010, compared with 1,703 units authorized in all of 2010.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. August 2011.
affordable housing, housing prices, mortgage foreclosures, neighborhoods
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Data Brief
Mortgage Lending to Vulnerable Communities: A Closer Look at HMDA 2009
Across the U.S., the number of home purchase mortgages issued to low- and moderate-income borrowers jumped by 26 percent in 2009, even as overall home purchase lending declined, new research released by the Furman Center finds. The data brief, Mortgage Lending to Vulnerable Communities: A Closer Look at HMDA 2009, finds that lending to low- and moderate-income homebuyers increased nationwide in 2009, despite a reduction in the number of home purchase mortgages issued to higher income borrowers. Lending in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods, on the other hand, did not see a similar increase.
Josiah Madar, Max Weselcouch. August 2011.
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Working Paper
The Role of Neighborhood Characteristics in Mortgage Default Risk: Evidence from New York City
We construct a database of non-prime hybrid adjustable and fixed rate mortgages from New York City that augments a rich set of loan and borrower risk characteristics with a variety of census tract level neighborhood characteristics. We find that these neighborhood characteristics are important for default behavior, even after an extensive set of controls. First, default rates increase with the rate of foreclosure notices and the number of lender-owned properties (REOs) in the tract. Second, default rates for home purchase mortgages are higher in predominantly black tracts, regardless of the borrower’s own race. We explore possible explanations for our findings.
Sewin Chan, Michael Gedal, Vicki Been, Andrew Haughwout. August 2011.
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